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Pub. L. 102-579, 106 Stat. 4777, as amended by Pub. L. 104-201,110 Stat. 2422; Reorganization Plan No. 3 of 1970, 35 FR 15623, Oct. 6, 1970, 5 U.S.C. app. 1; Atomic Energy Act of 1954, as amended, 42 U.S.C. 2011-2296 and 10101-10270.
61 FR 5235, Feb. 9, 1996, unless otherwise noted.
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The release limits shall be calculated according to part 191, appendix A of this chapter, using the total activity, in curies, that will exist in the disposal system at the time of disposal.
(a) Performance assessments shall consider natural processes and events, mining, deep drilling, and shallow drilling that may affect the disposal system during the regulatory time frame.
(b) Assessments of mining effects may be limited to changes in the hydraulic conductivity of the hydrogeologic units of the disposal system from excavation mining for natural resources. Mining shall be assumed to occur with a one in 100 probability in each century of the regulatory time frame. Performance assessments shall assume that mineral deposits of those resources, similar in quality and type to those resources currently extracted from the Delaware Basin, will be completely removed from the controlled area during the century in which such mining is randomly calculated to occur. Complete removal of such mineral resources shall be assumed to occur only once during the regulatory time frame.
(c) Performance assessments shall include an analysis of the effects on the disposal system of any activities that occur in the vicinity of the disposal system prior to disposal and are expected to occur in the vicinity of the disposal system soon after disposal. Such activities shall include, but shall not be limited to, existing boreholes and the development of any existing leases that can be reasonably expected to be developed in the near future, including boreholes and leases that may be used for fluid injection activities.
(d) Performance assessments need not consider processes and events that have less than one chance in 10,000 of occurring over 10,000 years.
(e) Any compliance application(s) shall include information which:
(1) Identifies all potential processes, events or sequences and combinations of processes and events that may occur during the regulatory time frame and may affect the disposal system;
(2) Identifies the processes, events or sequences and combinations of processes and events included in performance assessments; and
(3) Documents why any processes, events or sequences and combinations of processes and events identified pursuant to paragraph (e)(1) of this section were not included in performance assessment results provided in any compliance application.
(a) Performance assessments shall examine deep drilling and shallow drilling that may potentially affect the disposal system during the regulatory time frame.
(b) The following assumptions and process shall be used in assessing the likelihood and consequences of drilling events, and the results of such process shall be documented in any compliance application:
(1) Inadvertent and intermittent intrusion by drilling for resources (other than those resources provided by the waste in the disposal system or engineered barriers designed to isolate such waste) is the most severe human intrusion scenario.
(2) In performance assessments, drilling events shall be assumed to occur in the Delaware Basin at random intervals in time and space during the regulatory time frame.
(3) The frequency of deep drilling shall be calculated in the following manner:
(i) Identify deep drilling that has occurred for each resource in the Delaware Basin over the past 100 years prior to the time at which a compliance application is prepared.
(ii) The total rate of deep drilling shall be the sum of the rates of deep drilling for each resource.
(4) The frequency of shallow drilling shall be calculated in the following manner:
(i) Identify shallow drilling that has occurred for each resource in the Delaware Basin over the past 100 years prior to the time at which a compliance application is prepared.
(ii) The total rate of shallow drilling shall be the sum of the rates of shallow drilling for each resource.
(iii) In considering the historical rate of all shallow drilling, the Department may, if justified, consider only the historical rate of shallow drilling for resources of similar type and quality to those in the controlled area.
(c) Performance assessments shall document that in analyzing the consequences of drilling events, the Department assumed that:
(1) Future drilling practices and technology will remain consistent with practices in the Delaware Basin at the time a compliance application is prepared. Such future drilling practices shall include, but shall not be limited to: The types and amounts of drilling fluids; borehole depths, diameters, and seals; and the fraction of such boreholes that are sealed by humans; and
(2) Natural processes will degrade or otherwise affect the capability of boreholes to transmit fluids over the regulatory time frame.
(d) With respect to future drilling events, performance assessments need not analyze the effects of techniques used for resource recovery subsequent to the drilling of the borehole.
(a) The results of performance assessments shall be assembled into “complementary, cumulative distribution functions” (CCDFs) that represent the probability of exceeding various levels of cumulative release caused by all significant processes and events.
(b) Probability distributions for uncertain disposal system parameter values used in performance assessments shall be developed and documented in any compliance application.
(c) Computational techniques, which draw random samples from across the entire range of the probability distributions developed pursuant to paragraph (b) of this section, shall be used in generating CCDFs and shall be documented in any compliance application.
(d) The number of CCDFs generated shall be large enough such that, at cumulative releases of 1 and 10, the maximum CCDF generated exceeds the 99th percentile of the population of CCDFs with at least a 0.95 probability. Values of cumulative release shall be calculated according to Note 6 of Table 1, appendix A of part 191 of this chapter.
(e) Any compliance application shall display the full range of CCDFs generated.
(f) Any compliance application shall provide information which demonstrates that there is at least a 95 percent level of statistical confidence that the mean of the population of CCDFs meets the containment requirements of § 191.13 of this chapter.